Legislative 2022: the Nupes in search of the “magic recipe” to prevent Emmanuel Macron from retaining the majority in the Assembly

What if the hardest part started for Nupes? The left-wing coalition, which was running for the first time in this form in a ballot, ended the first round of the legislative elections neck and neck with the presidential camp on Sunday, June 12. But according to the projections of the polling institutes, the candidates of this alliance would not manage to outstrip the camp of Emmanuel Macron in number of seats in the National Assembly.

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However, the Nupes does not admit defeat and counts on its dynamics to elect as many deputies as possible for the next legislature. For it, “there are no obvious voice reserves” for Sunday, explains to franceinfo Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the Ipsos institute. The left-wing parties, already united before the first round, cannot really come together for the second. Nupes thus risks finding itself short of voters in the 279 clashes with the outgoing majority, well placed to remain the leading political force in the National Assembly.

At Nupes, there is no question of driving out the voices of the right. Coalition strategists have understood that most of the 11.3% collected by LR and its allies “has no real reservations about voting for Emmanuel Macron”, evacuates Mathieu Gallard. The alliance instead targets left-wing presidential voters who did not vote in the first round of legislative elections. “We only have a few days to remobilize the part of our electorate who abstained”poses Eric Coquerel, outgoing deputy of Seine-Saint-Denis.

Of the 10.8 million voters who voted Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Yannick Jadot, Fabien Roussel and Anne Hidalgo on April 10, only 5.8 million came on Sunday. This is much less than the sole electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (7.7 million votes in the first round of the presidential election). How to get them back in the voting booth? “If we had the magic recipe to interest people, we would apply it immediately”quips Loïc Prud’homme, in a favorable ballot for his re-election in Gironde.

One target is particularly important, especially for La France insoumise: young people. Among those under 34, more than seven out of ten people abstained, while more than 30% of this electorate voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the presidential election. “We have to work on social networks to convince themsupports Aurélie Trouvé, candidate in Seine-Saint-Denis. “We have to go where they are physically and virtually, find the right channels, do pedagogy, touch them”lists Loïc Prud’homme, a bit defeatist for next Sunday.

“It is impossible to remobilize on the scale of the presidential election, especially in the age group of 18-24 years, which is quite poorly informed.”

Loïc Prud’homme, LFI deputy for Gironde

at franceinfo

“Today, we are trying to politicize, to raise awareness of this generation, but we are starting from very far away and five days of campaigning is very short”deplores the Nupes candidate from the south of Bordeaux. “When Jean-Luc Mélenchon calls on people on Sunday evening to ‘surge’ into the polling stations in the second round, he is addressing them, not graduates from urban centers who have already come”analyzes sociologist Manuel Cervera-Marzal, specialist in the LFI electorate. “Young people from the suburbs who voted for him will be difficult to mobilize, because the effect of dramatization is eroding. It works once, less the following ones”, he continues.

“The reason they didn’t go to the polls on Sunday is that they were in line on April 10, they voted and that hasn’t changed”believes Eric Coquerel.

“Among young people, there is a kind of mistrust vis-à-vis the system which has re-established itself.”

Eric Coquerel, LFI deputy for Seine-Saint-Denis

at franceinfo

“There is another reserve of votes for the Nupes, but it is weaker”, shade Manuel Cervera-Marzal. These are the famous “angry not fachos”an expression that Jean-Luc Mélenchon himself used on Monday evening on France 2, at the cost of a small wording error.

Who are these people ? “It is the voters of Marine Le Pen who do not agree with the identity theses of the far right but who think that it will respond to their anger”explained Adrien Quatennens on franceinfo, Tuesday morning, assuming “trying to convince people who, from our point of view, are going astray by voting for the extreme right”. “We have been trying to bring this electorate home for ten years”, insists Loïc Prud’homme. Two months after the re-election of Emmanuel Macron, the left is trying to federate the anger directed against the head of state. “This election must be made an anti-Macron referendum”loose Eric Coquerel.

While the majority refers back to back “extreme left” and “extreme right”, the Nupes relentlessly attacks Emmanuel Macron’s camp, knocking down several cards. First, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and many LFI officials denounced “the hack” of the Ministry of the Interior in the accounting of the results of the Nupes, Sunday evening. Then, the candidates of the Nupes pose in “targets” and in “real danger” for the executive, according to Aurélie Trouvé, while denigrating the National Rally, “out of the game”according to Adrien Quatennens.

Left-wing leaders are also putting pressure on Elisabeth Borne, Prime Minister and Majority Leader, to organize a confrontation with Jean-Luc Mélenchon. “If you want to increase turnout in the second round, have an in-between-round debate. We’re calling for it”, assured EELV manager Julien Bayou at franceinfo on Monday. On Tuesday, Jean-Luc Mélenchon stressed in a press release that the Prime Minister had “refused this debate” which was to be organized on France 2.

Asked by franceinfo, Matignon believes that Elisabeth Borne “don’t run away from the debate” because she is campaigning in her constituency of Calvados and recalls that “Jean-Luc Mélenchon is not a candidate” to the legislative ones. The entourage of the Prime Minister, guest of the JT of France 2 Wednesday evening, promises to “answer” to the leader of the “rebellious”. What further accentuate the opposition with the Nupes of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, meeting in Toulouse, Tuesday evening.

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Legislative 2022: the Nupes in search of the “magic recipe” to prevent Emmanuel Macron from retaining the majority in the Assembly

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