Legislative 2022: Nupes, Together, RN … how each party seeks its votes for the second round

the essential
Together like Nupes, each camp is now looking for reserves of votes that will allow it to maintain or gain power. From this point of view, the advantage goes to the presidential bloc, but a reversal is still possible on Sunday.

On the right, on the left, in the center and among the abstainers… Since Sunday evening, everyone is looking for votes. For some, those that will allow Emmanuel Macron to obtain an absolute majority and to govern without begging for the support of the LRs or part of the PS. For the others, precious sesame which will open the doors of Matignon to Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

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Because what emerges from the first round of these legislative elections believed to be 2022 is that nothing is played. Even if, on paper, the rebellious leader has little chance of succeeding Élisabeth Borne, it is not completely excluded that the success of the first round creates a rebound conducive to his victory. A lack of care by the majority, particularly feverish in recent days, cannot be ruled out either. Each camp will therefore, throughout the week, seek out each vote, not neglecting any reservations.

Heading for the Republicans

For Together, the most obvious is in the 10% achieved by Les Républicains. Hence the will of the majority to play on the fears of this electorate which fears more than anything the arrival of Jean-Luc Mélenchon at Matignon. Elisabeth Borne has also been strongly criticized for having put RN and Nupes on the same level in her speech on Sunday evening. Another reserve of votes but much less important for the majority, that came from the moderate left which did not want to ally itself with Mélenchon from the first round. Finally the majority will try to mobilize the abstentionists, playing, again, on the fear of seeing, for five years, the country governed by France Insoumise.

The reserves of votes are less obvious to find for the Nupes which especially hopes to mobilize the young people who strongly abstained during the first round. About 74% of those under 34 did not go to the polls. If they mobilized next Sunday, they could be rather tempted by Jean-Luc Mélenchon who notably placed the theme of ecology at the heart of his program.

Closest election since 1997

On the other hand, it will be more complicated for the alliance of the left to attract another category of abstentionists, this part of the French who have recognized themselves in the movement of yellow vests and who have long fled the ballot box. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has often tried to address this segment of the population, but without much success so far. However, in view of a particularly uncertain second round, some of these popular categories could be pushed onto the ballot box in order to prevent Emmanuel Macron from governing hands free over the next five years.

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The other great unknown is at Marine Le Pen. His voters also abstained a lot during the first round due to the lack of a dynamic campaign by their leader. What will they do ? Some could go beyond the political paradox and vote Mélenchon to drive out the Macronist majority. But another party, out of hatred for the left, could, on the contrary, vote for Macron.

In the background of these different scenarios, there is one constant: even if we are witnessing the tightest ballot since 1997, abstention has never been reduced between the two rounds of an election. Will it be different on Sunday? Impossible to predict, but, as during the presidential election in April, this second round will be played front against front: anti-Mélenchon on one side, anti-Macron on the other.

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Legislative 2022: Nupes, Together, RN … how each party seeks its votes for the second round

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